Parties

Russia vs. Ukraine + Western support

Model Summary

Combined: Russia ~$165B/yr (SIPRI/UkraineWorld 2026 budget: 14.9T roubles, 6.3% of GDP) + Ukraine ~$71B/yr (2025 defense budget) + European aid ~$65B/yr = ~$301B/yr or ~$825M/day. Total Western aid committed: $188B+ (CFR, Dec 2025). US withdrew 99% of direct support in 2025; Europe increased contribution but has not fully compensated. Russia's military spending as % of GDP peaked at 7.5% in 2025, declining slightly to 6.3% in 2026 (14.9T roubles planned) — though budget amendments expected as higher oil prices from the Iran war ease fiscal pressure (SIPRI, 2026). As of April 2026, Russian forces occupy roughly 20% of Ukraine. During March 10–April 7, Russian forces gained 17 sq miles — slow incremental gains continuing. MARCH 2026 LOSSES: Russia suffered its highest single-month casualties since 2022 in March 2026 — 35,351 killed or wounded in one month (United24 Media / Ukrainian General Staff). EASTER CEASEFIRE: Putin announced a temporary 30-hour Orthodox Easter ceasefire from April 11 (16:00 Moscow time) to end of April 12, 2026; Zelensky agreed, stating Ukraine was 'ready for symmetrical steps.' Historical precedent from 2025's Easter ceasefire showed both sides accused the other of violations — durability uncertain. Broader peace talks in Abu Dhabi and Geneva in early 2026 have stalled over territorial impasse. EASTER CEASEFIRE FAILS (Apr 11-12, 2026): Putin ordered a 32-hour ceasefire beginning 16:00 Moscow time April 11 through end of April 12 for Orthodox Easter; Zelensky agreed. Hours before it took effect, Russia struck Ukraine with 160 drones (133 intercepted/shot down), killing 2 in Odessa. The ceasefire largely failed: by 7:00 a.m. April 12, Ukraine reported 2,299 Russian violations (28 assault actions, 479 shellings, 747 attack drone strikes, 1,045 FPV strikes). Russia’s Defense Ministry countered that Ukraine committed 1,971 violations (258 artillery/tank shots, 1,329 FPV strikes, 375 munition drops). The Easter ceasefire expired at end of day April 12. The broader ceasefire remains in effect in name only; both sides are trading accusations. Russian advances have slowed since late 2025, with fighting near a standstill on most of the front. APRIL 14, 2026 UPDATE: Ukrainian General Staff reported total Russian personnel casualties at 1,312,960 as of April 14, 2026 (empr.media). BBC/Mediazona open-source investigation identified nearly 209,000 confirmed Russian KIA by name as of April 10, 2026 — up from 207,552+ on April 3. 125 combat engagements recorded on April 14; Russia carried out 1 missile strike, 70 airstrikes, 246 guided aerial bombs, 10,256 kamikaze drones, and 3,828 shellings. Frontline remains largely static with slow incremental Russian gains. APRIL 15-16, 2026 UPDATE: Russia launched a mass overnight strike on Ukraine on April 16, hitting Kyiv, Dnipro, and Odesa — residential buildings destroyed, at least 1 killed and 6 injured in Odessa alone. Ukraine struck back, hitting the Tuapse Oil Refinery (Rosneft, Krasnodar Krai). 212 combat engagements on April 15; Russia deployed 6,672 kamikaze drones and 2,917 shellings. Ukraine intercepted 20/21 missiles and 349/361 drones. Germany announced €300M for Ukrainian long-range drones (Boris Pistorius, Apr 15). Ukrainian General Staff reported Russian total casualties at 1,315,070 as of April 16 (+1,100 in 24hrs) — empr.media. The Easter ceasefire failure (April 11-12) confirmed that neither side has the strategic appetite for a durable halt; Russia immediately resumed full operations. Russia gained control of Vovchanski Khutory (Dnipropetrovsk region), advancing toward Bochkove. APRIL 16-17, 2026 MASS ATTACK: Russia launched its largest aerial assault of 2026 overnight April 16 — 19 ballistic missiles, 25 cruise missiles, and 659 drones targeting Kyiv, Odesa, Dnipro, and Zaporizhzhia. At least 18 killed (including a 12-year-old in Kyiv) and 118 wounded: 4+ killed and 50+ injured in Kyiv; 9 killed and 23 injured in Odesa; 3 killed and 36+ injured in Dnipro; 1 killed in Zaporizhzhia. Ukraine intercepted 8/19 ballistic missiles, 23/25 cruise missiles, and 636/659 drones. A drone crashed into an 18-story residential building in western Kyiv. Ukrainian officials called it "the deadliest aerial assault of the year." Analysts noted the Iran war has drained Ukraine's air defense munitions. The Easter ceasefire failure followed by this mass attack underscores that the broader ceasefire exists in name only. APRIL 2026 UPDATE: Russia suffered its highest monthly casualties since the February 2022 invasion — Ukraine's General Staff tallied 35,351 Russian casualties in March 2026 (29% above February), with drones causing 96% of them. Ukraine General Staff reports cumulative Russian losses of 1,311,180 troops as of April 12, 2026; equipment losses as of April 20: 11,884 tanks, 24,422 armored fighting vehicles, 40,396 artillery systems. Russia suffered 316 casualties per square kilometer captured in Q1 2026 — versus 120 per sq km in 2025. Ukraine's defense ministry states Russia has been unable to replace all losses since December 2025. In the week of April 17, Russia lost ~1,000 soldiers per day (KIA/WIA). IMF estimates Ukraine spends €172M/day (~$1.2B/week) on the war. EU has ratified a $90B multiyear loan for 2026. Total European military aid to Ukraine exceeds €72B by April 2026 (Kiel Institute). Ukraine approved a record 2026 wartime budget of ₴4.8T ($113.8B). APRIL 20-21, 2026 UPDATE: Ukrainian General Staff reported cumulative Russian personnel casualties at ~1,319,270 as of April 20 (+~1,050 in the prior 24 hours). NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte stated the Russian army is losing 20,000-25,000 soldiers killed per month in Ukraine. Ukraine's March 2026 count of 35,351 Russian KIA/WIA remains the deadliest single month of the war. Russia continues ~1,000 KIA/WIA per day through the week of April 17-21. Finnish President Alexander Stubb cited a 1:5 kill ratio favoring Ukraine, attributing it to Ukraine's drone mass production.

Sources

SIPRI Military Expenditure Database 2024–2026; SIPRI Insights 2026 — Budget for a Fifth Year of War; Al Jazeera Feb 2026 four-year review; CFR Ukraine Aid Tracker (Dec 2025); Kiel Institute; UkraineWorld (Russia 2026 budget analysis); Russia Matters War Report Card (Apr 8, 2026); Russia Matters War Report Card (Apr 1, 2026); United24 Media (Apr 2026 — Russia hits grim high in March 2026, 35,351 troops lost); Euronews / Kremlin (Apr 9, 2026 — Putin announces Orthodox Easter ceasefire); Zelenskyy / Outlook India (Apr 9-10, 2026 — Ukraine agrees to Easter ceasefire); Al Jazeera (Apr 10, 2026 — Russia and Ukraine agree to 32-hour Orthodox Easter ceasefire); WSLS (Apr 11, 2026 — Russian strikes on Odesa kill 2 ahead of Orthodox Easter ceasefire); Taipei Times (Apr 11, 2026 — Russia, Ukraine agree 32-hour ceasefire confirmed); PBS NewsHour (Apr 11, 2026 — Putin declares weekend ceasefire for Orthodox Easter); ABC News / Reuters (Apr 12, 2026 — Russia and Ukraine accuse each other of violating Orthodox Easter ceasefire); EA WorldView (Apr 12, 2026 — Ukraine War Day 1,509: Kyiv records 2,299 Russian ceasefire violations); Xinhua (Apr 12, 2026 — Russia accuses Ukraine of nearly 2,000 violations); PBS NewsHour (Apr 12, 2026 — Easter ceasefire falters); Mediazona / BBC (Apr 10, 2026 — nearly 209,000 Russian soldiers confirmed KIA by open-source investigation); empr.media (Apr 14, 2026 — Russia-Ukraine War Updates: 1,312,960 total Russian casualties per Ukrainian General Staff); Russia Matters War Report Card (Apr 15, 2026); empr.media (Apr 16, 2026 — Russia-Ukraine War Updates: 1,315,070 total Russian casualties per Ukrainian General Staff); GlobalSecurity.org (Apr 15, 2026 — Military Situation in Ukraine maps); CNN (Apr 16, 2026 — Russia launches one of its largest drone attacks on Ukraine this year, killing 18); Euronews (Apr 16, 2026 — Russia hits Kyiv, Odesa and Dnipro in deadliest attack); NBC News (Apr 17, 2026 — Russian missiles and drones bombard Ukraine for hours, killing at least 18); CBS News (Apr 16, 2026 — Russia launches deadliest aerial assault of year, 118 wounded); Kyiv Independent (Apr 17, 2026 — Ukraine war latest, new drone assault units); Russia Matters War Report Card (Apr 15, 2026); Al Jazeera (Apr 10, 2026 — Russia suffers record soldier casualties); Ukrainska Pravda (Apr 17, 2026 — Russian losses 1,000 killed/wounded in past day); Ukrainska Pravda (Apr 12, 2026 — Russia's losses as of Apr 12 morning); Mediazona (Apr 10, 2026 — Russian losses updated); Kyiv Post (2026 Ukraine wartime budget $113.8B); Kiel Institute Ukraine Support Tracker (Apr 2026); Euronews (Apr 2026 — EU states ratified $90B multiyear loan); General Staff of Ukraine cumulative losses (Apr 20, 2026); Militarnyi (Apr 2026 — NATO estimates Russian monthly KIA at 20,000-25,000); Breaking Defense (Apr 15, 2026 — Finnish President Stubb cites 1:5 kill ratio); Defense Express (Apr 20, 2026 — 1,517 days of war, Russian casualties); Ukrainska Pravda (Apr 15, 2026 — Russian losses 1,010 soldiers past day); Minfin Ukraine (Apr 20, 2026 — cumulative Russian casualties ~1,319,270)

Cost Estimates

≈ Compared To

⚠ Russia does not publish military casualties. BBC/Mediazona open-source investigation identified ~209,000 Russian KIA by name as of April 10, 2026 (up from 207,552+ on April 3) — a confirmed floor. BBC modelled total Russian KIA at 319,300–461,200 (April 3, 2026). CSIS estimated 1.2M total Russian casualties (killed and wounded) through December 2025; Ukraine's General Staff tallied 1,298,730 by April 1, 2026. UK MoD (June 2025) estimated 250,000 killed. A late February 2026 Western intelligence estimate put Russian total casualties (killed + wounded) at ~1,000,000; Ukrainian figures (250,000–300,000 killed and wounded) from the same Western source. These are lower than CSIS's figures — divergence reflects methodological differences. Ukrainian figures are state-suppressed; Zelenskyy cited 55,000 KIA in Feb 2026, widely considered an undercount. OHCHR civilian deaths: 15,172 confirmed killed, 41,378 injured by January 31, 2026. Russia is cutting planned defense spending by ~7% in 2026 (14.9T vs 16T rubles in 2025), but mid-year budget amendments are likely given higher oil prices from the Iran conflict. March 2026 was Russia's deadliest single month of the war: 35,351 casualties in one month per Ukrainian General Staff (United24 Media, Apr 2026). APRIL 2026 UPDATE: Ukraine's General Staff reports cumulative Russian losses of 1,311,180 troops (Apr 12) and approximately 1,318,000+ by Apr 20. Russia's March 2026 casualties (35,351) marked the deadliest month of the war for Russian forces — a 29% increase on February, with drones accounting for 96% of casualties. Russia lost ~1,000 soldiers per day through mid-April. Russia's replacement rate has fallen behind losses since December 2025 per Ukraine's defense ministry. APRIL 20-21, 2026: Ukraine General Staff cumulative Russian losses ~1,319,270 on April 20 (+1,050 in 24h). NATO Sec Gen Rutte: Russia losing 20,000-25,000 KIA per month in Ukraine. Finnish President Stubb cited a 1:5 kill ratio (Ukraine to Russia) driven by drone operations. Russia's equipment losses on Apr 20: 11,884 tanks, 24,422 AFVs, 40,396 artillery systems cumulatively (Ukrainian General Staff).

Sources: BBC / Mediazona open-source investigation (Apr 3, 2026 — 207,552+ identified KIA); BBC modelled range (Apr 3, 2026 — 319,300–461,200 KIA); The Economist (Feb 2026 model); CSIS (Dec 2025 — 1.2M total casualties, 325,000+ deaths); UK MoD (Jun 2025 — 250,000 killed); OHCHR (Jan 31, 2026 — 15,172 civilians killed, 41,378 injured); Al Jazeera 4-year review (Feb 2026); Zelenskyy public statement (Feb 2026); Ukraine General Staff (Apr 1, 2026 — 1,298,730 total Russian casualties); SIPRI Insights (2026 — Russian 2026 budget analysis); Russia Matters War Report Card (Apr 8, 2026); Mediazona / BBC (Apr 10, 2026 — nearly 209,000 confirmed KIA); empr.media (Apr 14, 2026 — 1,312,960 total Russian casualties); Russia Matters War Report Card (Apr 15, 2026); empr.media (Apr 16, 2026 — 1,315,070 total Russian casualties, Ukrainian General Staff)